What if BOJ guides a stronger yen, easing imported-inflation pressure calmly?
Verbal guidance plus measured hikes engineer a controlled yen appreciation that cools import costs without a carry rout, a benign normalization that supports orderly global risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Verbal guidance plus measured hikes engineer a controlled yen appreciation that cools import costs without a carry rout, a benign normalization that supports orderly global risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▼ · Volatility (VIX) ▼ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.08–+0.37% |
| 2 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.21–+1.67% |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -9.21–+2.7% |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -6.04–+4.86% |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.04–+0.37% |
| 7 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.17–-0.04% |
| 8 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.39–+0.52% |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.04–+0.54% |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.45–+1.25% |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.18–+0.56% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 36 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -5.7% | 75% | 8 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 18 | 0.26 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -8.3% · 5d -4.6% | 65% | 20 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.0% | 61% | 18 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 33 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -3bp | 60% | 33 | 0.15 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.6% · 5d -5.8% | 60% | 10 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -2.3% | 54% | 26 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 53% | 19 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.4% | 53% | 19 | 0.04 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 47% | 28 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 48% | 23 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.1% | 50% | 14 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |