What if BOJ pauses normalization, re-anchoring a stable, risk-on carry regime?
Soft wage and CPI data let the BOJ hold rates low and stable, reviving JPY-funded carry and supporting a calm, range-bound yen that underpins global risk appetite.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Soft wage and CPI data let the BOJ hold rates low and stable, reviving JPY-funded carry and supporting a calm, range-bound yen that underpins global risk appetite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · Volatility (VIX) ▼ · FX carry appetite ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.06–+0.61% |
| 2 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.7% hist -4.4–+1.56% |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -9.03–+2.8% |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.06–+0.54% |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -5.83–+4.99% |
| 7 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.18–+0.87% |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.29–+1.38% |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.12–+0.66% |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.24–+1.15% |
| 11 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.88–+0.47% |
| 12 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.04–+0.12% |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.29–+0.83% |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.68–+3.5% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 35 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -5.7% | 75% | 8 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -0.7% | 71% | 7 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -3.3% | 70% | 30 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 71% | 17 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 18 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -8.3% · 5d -4.6% | 65% | 20 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.6% | 63% | 32 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -4.1% | 61% | 30 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.8% | 61% | 18 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.0% | 61% | 18 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.6% · 5d -5.8% | 60% | 10 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 32 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -7bp · 5d -2bp | 58% | 32 | 0.13 | · |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.9% | 57% | 21 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |