What if BoJ surprise hike snaps USDJPY and unwinds the yen carry?
An unexpected Bank of Japan rate increase sends USDJPY sharply lower and forces a rapid yen-carry liquidation; global risk assets wobble as the funding currency strengthens and volatility jumps.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An unexpected Bank of Japan rate increase sends USDJPY sharply lower and forces a rapid yen-carry liquidation; global risk assets wobble as the funding currency strengthens and volatility jumps. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Fed policy path ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.54–-0.23% · other way +1.78% (n=12) |
| 2 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.8% hist -2.46–+1.62% · other way -7.72% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.62–+3.9% · other way +7.6% (n=8) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -5.39–+1.53% · other way +15.48% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -7.35–+2.01% · other way +7.67% (n=9) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.33–-0.16% · other way +2.46% (n=12) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.26–-0.15% · other way +1.93% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.53–+1.01% · other way +6.1% (n=9) |
| 10 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.23–+0.01% · other way -1.37% (n=11) |
| 11 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.26–+1.26% · other way +0.66% (n=11) |
| 12 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.79–+0.12% · other way -0.71% (n=11) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.32–+0.27% · other way +3.49% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.41–+6.87% · other way +15.52% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 34 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 66% | 33 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d -6.4% | 63% | 20 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -0.0% | 61% | 34 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.2% · 5d +2.7% | 62% | 13 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -3.1% | 61% | 37 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.5% | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | · |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.2% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 54% | 34 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d +3.8% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 51% | 40 | 0.01 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +2bp | 51% | 40 | 0.01 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 46% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +4.7% · 5d -6.2% ↺ fades | 38% | 14 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |