What if China's subsidised AI-chip push floods mature-node markets with overcapacity?
Cut off from frontier chips, China mounts a massive subsidized push for domestic AI compute, creating overcapacity and price wars in mature nodes that spill into global markets.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Cut off from frontier chips, China mounts a massive subsidized push for domestic AI compute, creating overcapacity and price wars in mature nodes that spill into global markets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.