What if China imposes full rare-earth & magnet embargo?
Beijing halts all exports of rare-earth metals and NdFeB magnets, choking defense, EV and robotics supply chains; MP and Lynas spike while industrial users scramble.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Beijing halts all exports of rare-earth metals and NdFeB magnets, choking defense, EV and robotics supply chains; MP and Lynas spike while industrial users scramble. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.7% hist -1.55–-0.75% · other way +0.53% (n=12) |
| 2 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -2.65–-0.44% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -1.71–-0.92% · other way +1.05% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -1.62–-0.85% · other way +7.28% (n=12) |
| 5 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -3.87–+0.57% · other way -3.44% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.1–-0.51% · other way +0.9% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.45–+0.09% · other way -1.73% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.42–+1.19% · other way +1.15% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.77–-0.31% · other way -6.54% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.95–-0.19% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -4.01–+0.76% · other way -8.24% (n=10) |
| 12 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.07–+0.05% · other way -2.76% (n=11) |
| 13 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.18–+0.32% · other way +18.79% (n=12) |
| 14 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -4.09–+0.85% · other way -3.18% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -2.0% | 66% | 37 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 64% | 36 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -3.4% | 66% | 32 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 66% | 36 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.2% | 63% | 36 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.9% · 5d +1.2% | 62% | 37 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 37 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -6.5% | 61% | 28 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -3.0% | 60% | 36 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -2.3% | 59% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 36 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.3% | 59% | 35 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.5% | 58% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.8% | 58% | 36 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |