What if China rhardens dual-use end-user rules on critical metals?
Beijing requires end-user verification across gallium, germanium, antimony and rare earths, slowing all shipments and embedding a structural risk premium into minor-metal prices.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Beijing requires end-user verification across gallium, germanium, antimony and rare earths, slowing all shipments and embedding a structural risk premium into minor-metal prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.