What if Coordinated US-Japan FX intervention defends the yen at extremes?
A rare joint US-Japan operation to support the yen marks a policy line, briefly spiking volatility and squeezing carry shorts as the dollar pulls back from its highs.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A rare joint US-Japan operation to support the yen marks a policy line, briefly spiking volatility and squeezing carry shorts as the dollar pulls back from its highs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▼ · Volatility (VIX) ▲ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.43–+1.54% · other way -7.07% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.37–-0.01% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 3 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.42–+0.29% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 4 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.26–-0.12% · other way +1.04% (n=12) |
| 5 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.43–+0.44% · other way -1.12% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.96–+1.18% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.15–+0.27% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.26–+0.09% · other way +0.75% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.38–+0.72% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -7.85–+3.47% · other way +2.79% (n=11) |
| 12 | Korean won KRWon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.43–+0.36% · other way -1.37% (n=12) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.07–+0.4% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -6.8% | 80% | 10 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.5% · 5d -7.1% | 67% | 15 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.4% | 62% | 26 | 0.19 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 28 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 53% | 39 | 0.05 | · |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 52% | 33 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.6% | 52% | 27 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.6% | 52% | 27 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d +4.7% ↺ fades | 51% | 35 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 47% | 37 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.2% | 46% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 46% | 28 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 44% | 27 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |