What if a sweeping US Entity List expansion cuts off Chinese tech firms?
A sweeping US Entity-List and Military-End-User expansion abruptly cuts off Chinese tech firms from US inputs, triggering supply shocks and Chinese retaliation against US firms.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A sweeping US Entity-List and Military-End-User expansion abruptly cuts off Chinese tech firms from US inputs, triggering supply shocks and Chinese retaliation against US firms. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +7.5% hist +0.99–+7.91% · other way -1.95% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.8% hist -2.73–-1.18% · other way -0.12% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.7% hist -2.52–-1.1% · other way +0.99% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.3% hist -2.68–-0.51% · other way +3.31% (n=12) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.2% hist -3.94–-0.19% · other way +1.17% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.3% hist -2.11–-1.21% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 7 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -3.76–+0.26% · other way -1.38% (n=12) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.53–-0.74% · other way -2.76% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.57–-0.56% · other way +5.2% (n=12) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -3.77–+0.25% · other way -2.25% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.99–-0.51% · other way -0.68% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.7% hist -2.13–-0.11% · other way +1.39% (n=12) |
| 13 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.15–+1.58% · other way +7.5% (n=12) |
| 14 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% hist -7.89–+3.0% · other way -17.09% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -6.4% | 73% | 23 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 67% | 29 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.4% | 67% | 27 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -3.4% | 69% | 29 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 66% | 28 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.5% | 64% | 29 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -3.8% | 65% | 27 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -1.8% | 63% | 30 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 63% | 28 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.2% | 64% | 35 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 28 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -2.7% | 60% | 27 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -8.0% | 62% | 15 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.8% | 58% | 37 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |