What if widespread French strikes at nuclear plants and refineries disrupt fuel and power supply?
Widespread strikes at French refineries, nuclear plants and grid operators curtail fuel and power supply, spiking prices and disrupting transport and industry nationwide.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Widespread strikes at French refineries, nuclear plants and grid operators curtail fuel and power supply, spiking prices and disrupting transport and industry nationwide. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.