What if Israel strikes Iran without US backing?
Israel launches a unilateral strike on Iranian nuclear sites that the US declines to join, producing a messier, less decisive escalation and a volatile oil-risk premium.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Israel launches a unilateral strike on Iranian nuclear sites that the US declines to join, producing a messier, less decisive escalation and a volatile oil-risk premium. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +9.6% hist +2.79–+6.27% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.3% hist -2.15–-1.19% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.6% hist +0.42–+2.53% · other way -3.03% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist -1.29–+2.0% · other way -2.56% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.1% hist -1.92–-0.73% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.32–-0.68% · other way +1.22% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -2.38–+0.91% · other way +31.53% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.58–-0.55% · other way -3.0% (n=12) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.26–-0.29% · other way +1.95% (n=12) |
| 10 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.1% hist +0.56–+1.19% · other way -1.36% (n=12) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.31–+0.71% · other way +7.71% (n=12) |
| 13 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.56–+3.53% · other way -3.83% (n=12) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -4.3–+0.83% · other way +5.29% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.2% · 5d +4.3% | 71% | 18 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 66% | 37 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +7.0% · 5d +1.0% | 67% | 18 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.6% | 67% | 37 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +6bp | 66% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -6.7% · 5d -6.5% | 69% | 10 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.7% | 64% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 37 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 63% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.7% | 63% | 39 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.8% | 62% | 29 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 37 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.1% | 60% | 37 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |