What if Japanese semiconductor-equipment makers see AI-driven orders collapse?
Japanese semiconductor-equipment and materials makers see AI-driven orders collapse, dragging a sector central to Japan's recent equity-market gains.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Japanese semiconductor-equipment and materials makers see AI-driven orders collapse, dragging a sector central to Japan's recent equity-market gains. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -3.09–-0.11% · other way +10.73% (n=11) |
| 2 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.86–-0.41% · other way +1.22% (n=11) |
| 3 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.22–+0.08% · other way +1.38% (n=10) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -0.86–-0.26% · other way +1.87% (n=11) |
| 5 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.58–+0.21% · other way -1.56% (n=11) |
| 6 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -3.01–+0.66% · other way -2.85% (n=11) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.77–-0.23% · other way -1.39% (n=11) |
| 8 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.44–+2.51% · other way +0.53% (n=11) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -8.7–+0.89% · other way -6.82% (n=9) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.85–+0.93% · other way +17.05% (n=11) |
| 11 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.79–+0.75% · other way -1.53% (n=11) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.76–+0.69% · other way -1.63% (n=11) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -10.2–+1.51% · other way +3.52% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -5.3% | 77% | 27 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.3% · 5d -5.4% | 73% | 28 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.7% | 71% | 33 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 67% | 33 | 0.28 | · |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.3% | 62% | 26 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.3% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 34 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.3% | 65% | 35 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -3.5% | 65% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.2% | 60% | 36 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.3% | 62% | 30 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.8% | 60% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.9% | 60% | 36 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 33 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |