What if Japan fiscal-dominance fear steepens JGB curve, weakens JPY?
Rising debt-service costs and political resistance to consolidation stoke fiscal-dominance fears in Japan; the JGB curve steepens, JPY weakens, and global term premia rise as the last low-yield anchor erodes.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Rising debt-service costs and political resistance to consolidation stoke fiscal-dominance fears in Japan; the JGB curve steepens, JPY weakens, and global term premia rise as the last low-yield anchor erodes. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Yield-curve slope ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.