What if Japan normalizes rates smoothly without a JGB rupture?
The BoJ exits ultra-easy policy gradually with telegraphed steps; JGB yields rise in an orderly fashion, the yen firms, and no global duration shock materializes — a textbook normalization.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. The BoJ exits ultra-easy policy gradually with telegraphed steps; JGB yields rise in an orderly fashion, the yen firms, and no global duration shock materializes — a textbook normalization. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Yield-curve slope ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Fed policy path ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist -1.95–+4.46% · other way +4.57% (n=10) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.51–+0.9% · other way -3.04% (n=10) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -7.36–+4.99% · other way +4.01% (n=10) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.37–+1.23% · other way -4.69% (n=10) |
| 6 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -5.48–+3.69% · other way +6.8% (n=9) |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.19–+2.76% · other way +0.37% (n=10) |
| 8 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -15.46–+45.31% · other way +4.0% (n=12) |
| 9 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -19.3–+36.42% · other way +0.6% (n=12) |
| 10 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.46–+0.08% · other way -0.35% (n=12) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.2% hist -11.18–+6.11% · other way +11.34% (n=10) |
| 12 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.56–+0.87% · other way +0.31% (n=10) |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.0–+1.31% · other way +0.25% (n=10) |
| 14 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +2bp model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 6 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +40bp · 5d +8bp | 100% | 4 | 0.83 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +3.1% · 5d +2.1% | 100% | 2 | 0.75 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -11.1% · 5d +2.7% ↺ fades | 100% | 2 | 0.59 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -3.7% | 100% | 2 | 0.58 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +2.5% · 5d +2.5% | 100% | 2 | 0.57 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +34bp · 5d +2bp | 82% | 5 | 0.55 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -3.1% | 100% | 2 | 0.48 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.0% · 5d -5.0% | 100% | 2 | 0.46 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +7.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 2 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -0.2% | 60% | 2 | 0.15 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.4% | 60% | 2 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 60% | 2 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 5 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.3% | 40% | 2 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |