What if Orderly BoJ exit lets the JPY firm without breaking global carry?
A well-telegraphed Bank of Japan normalization allows the yen to strengthen gradually while carry unwinds in an orderly fashion; global risk assets digest the shift, supporting a stable, constructive tone.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A well-telegraphed Bank of Japan normalization allows the yen to strengthen gradually while carry unwinds in an orderly fashion; global risk assets digest the shift, supporting a stable, constructive tone. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▲ · Financial conditions ▼ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.69–+0.83% · other way +24.08% (n=7) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -7.48–+2.36% · other way +5.0% (n=8) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -8.02–+2.36% · other way +8.76% (n=11) |
| 5 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.77–+0.2% · other way -4.71% (n=11) |
| 6 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.11–+0.39% · other way +2.88% (n=10) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.1–+0.49% · other way +1.56% (n=11) |
| 8 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -5.32–+2.85% · other way +7.9% (n=11) |
| 9 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -5.55–+3.79% · other way +6.0% (n=12) |
| 10 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.05–+0.33% · other way +0.06% (n=11) |
| 11 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.65–+0.34% · other way +1.13% (n=10) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.19–+0.9% · other way +5.29% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -9.2% | 74% | 20 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -4.2% | 65% | 32 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -6.7% | 65% | 22 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 30 | 0.18 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -1bp | 60% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 57% | 30 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.2% | 59% | 26 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -1bp | 52% | 39 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -3.0% | 48% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.1% | 49% | 31 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 49% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 46% | 35 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.4% | 45% | 39 | 0.00 | · |