What if US-China decouple chip supply chains, raising structural costs?
Accelerating bifurcation of semiconductor ecosystems duplicates capacity and lifts equipment demand but raises long-run costs; ai_capex and chip-supply stress rise together, trade tension entrenches.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Accelerating bifurcation of semiconductor ecosystems duplicates capacity and lifts equipment demand but raises long-run costs; ai_capex and chip-supply stress rise together, trade tension entrenches. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -3.78–+0.76% · other way +2.11% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.74–-0.11% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.84–-0.06% · other way +1.52% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.9–-0.52% · other way +2.48% (n=12) |
| 5 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.85–+1.44% · other way -1.97% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.28–-0.04% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 7 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.25–+0.04% · other way -2.35% (n=12) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.13–+0.22% · other way -1.2% (n=12) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.88–+1.01% · other way +2.1% (n=12) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.22–+0.73% · other way +5.3% (n=12) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.03–+0.07% · other way +0.78% (n=12) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.13–+0.09% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.26–+1.77% · other way -0.71% (n=12) |
| 14 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -7.1–+3.58% · other way -5.49% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 16 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 75% | 15 | 0.42 | · |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.6% | 72% | 15 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.8% · 5d -6.8% | 77% | 12 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.5% | 75% | 15 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.2% | 69% | 15 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.7% | 69% | 15 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -3.1% | 66% | 15 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -3.6% | 62% | 15 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.9% | 62% | 15 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -4.1% | 62% | 15 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.5% · 5d -5.8% | 63% | 14 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -3.0% | 62% | 15 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 62% | 15 | 0.19 | · |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -4.3% | 59% | 15 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |