What if Yen normalization reverses a decade of JPY-funded global carry?
Structural BoJ tightening and higher JGB yields steadily repatriate Japanese capital, unwinding the megacarry that financed global risk assets; duration and EM FX face a persistent headwind.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Structural BoJ tightening and higher JGB yields steadily repatriate Japanese capital, unwinding the megacarry that financed global risk assets; duration and EM FX face a persistent headwind. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.53–-0.03% · other way +0.28% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -5.24–+1.53% · other way +26.58% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.46–-0.13% · other way +0.16% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.79–+0.76% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 5 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -6.11–+1.63% · other way -0.51% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -7.6–+1.84% · other way +3.6% (n=11) |
| 8 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.71–+0.04% · other way -0.5% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.33–+0.96% · other way +8.09% (n=11) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -1.66–+3.2% · other way +3.5% (n=12) |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -2.17–+3.7% · other way +4.9% (n=12) |
| 12 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.77–+0.18% · other way +0.71% (n=12) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.23–+0.28% · other way +0.58% (n=12) |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.82–+2.49% · other way -3.09% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.4% | 71% | 32 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -8.4% | 71% | 25 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.2% | 67% | 40 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.2% | 66% | 40 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -0.6% | 62% | 32 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.5% · 5d -6.5% | 67% | 26 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 32 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -6.5% | 65% | 21 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 32 | 0.22 | · |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 32 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -3.6% | 59% | 34 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.3% | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 24 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.6% | 61% | 30 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |