What if a disorderly yen slump forces faster BoJ hikes and squeezes carry trades globally?
A disorderly yen slump past prior intervention levels forces faster BoJ hikes, lifting JGB yields and squeezing leveraged carry positions globally.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A disorderly yen slump past prior intervention levels forces faster BoJ hikes, lifting JGB yields and squeezing leveraged carry positions globally. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -8.09–+1.82% · other way +23.24% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.68–-0.08% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.67–-0.06% · other way +0.75% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.69–+0.89% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 5 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.88–+1.48% · other way -7.07% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.81–+0.52% · other way +9.75% (n=11) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -9.05–+3.55% · other way +2.79% (n=11) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.45–+0.5% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -3.23–+4.14% · other way +1.3% (n=12) |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -4.19–+4.59% · other way +2.2% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.45–+0.28% · other way +3.44% (n=12) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.27–+0.07% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 14 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.33–+0.18% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 35 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -7.4% | 78% | 9 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 71% | 24 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.1% | 73% | 26 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.3% · 5d -7.6% | 71% | 14 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.7% | 75% | 4 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 26 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 65% | 26 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -4.3% | 66% | 29 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.6% | 63% | 35 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.3% | 60% | 35 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.4% | 60% | 25 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 35 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 57% | 35 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 27 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |