Equities
Arm
ARM324← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves Arm, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 66% · 210 up vs 1270 down scenarios
Arm leans lower near-term — high conviction. Of the 1,480 mapped scenarios that move Arm, 210 push it up and 1,270 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Arm lower is Treasury auction tail shock (39% likely, ~0.4% on Arm). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
What flips the down-lean: Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easing (40% likely).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Every scenario that moves Arm — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Arm up
| Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easing | 40% | +0.3% | 0–6 months |
| Fed declares the last mile won and front-loads relief cuts | 47% | +0.4% | 6–18 months |
| Fed cuts and long yields fall together in a textbook bull rally | 47% | +0.3% | 6–18 months |
| Fed-pivot melt-up: rate-cut hopes ignite a multiple expansion | 31% | +0.2% | 0–6 months |
+ 206 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Arm down
| Treasury auction tail shock | 39% | −0.4% | 0–6 months |
| Energy-led CPI overshoot lifts breakevens and real yields | 26% | −0.5% | 0–6 months |
| Real-rate reversal sparks gold ETF outflows and a sharp pullback | 50% | −0.3% | 0–6 months |
| Oil-shock $130 Brent with gold FALLING | 13% | −0.9% | 0–6 months |
+ 1,266 more down-scenarios in the library
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