Equities
Arm
ARM—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:ARM · provider market, not official cash close← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for Arm, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 66% · 210 up vs 1270 down scenarios
Arm leans lower near-term — high conviction. Of the 1,480 mapped scenarios that move Arm, 210 push it up and 1,270 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Arm lower is Treasury auction tail shock (event odds not yet verified; ~0.4% estimated impact on Arm if it occurs). Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the down-lean: Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easing (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
Arm is a close call over the next 7 days: 52.3% chance of a higher close means the evidence is only slightly tilted, not high-conviction.
The forecast swing band is -9.4% to +7.7% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The band is fairly balanced, so the read is more about direction than payoff skew.
The history anchor uses 738 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 54.1% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from the scenario graph, macro, rates and policy. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easingbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.33% estimated impact if it hits
- Fed declares the last mile won and front-loads relief cutsbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.39% estimated impact if it hits
- Treasury auction tail shockbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -0.39% estimated impact if it hits
- Real-rate reversal sparks gold ETF outflows and a sharp pullbackbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -0.28% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easingEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.33% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Fed declares the last mile won and front-loads relief cutsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.39% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Fed cuts and long yields fall together in a textbook bull rallyEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.35% mapped move if the event occurs.
Why lower
- Recent volume participationVolume z-score -0.97.
- Treasury auction tail shockEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.39% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Real-rate reversal sparks gold ETF outflows and a sharp pullbackEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.28% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Energy-led CPI overshoot lifts breakevens and real yieldsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.52% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · OHLCV bars · Scenario library · asset mesh + scenario graph · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move Arm — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Arm up
| Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easing | Odds not verified | +0.3% | 0–6 months |
| Fed declares the last mile won and front-loads relief cuts | Odds not verified | +0.4% | 6–18 months |
| Fed cuts and long yields fall together in a textbook bull rally | Odds not verified | +0.3% | 6–18 months |
| Fed-pivot melt-up: rate-cut hopes ignite a multiple expansion | Odds not verified | +0.2% | 0–6 months |
+ 206 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Arm down
| Treasury auction tail shock | Odds not verified | −0.4% | 0–6 months |
| Energy-led CPI overshoot lifts breakevens and real yields | Odds not verified | −0.5% | 0–6 months |
| Real-rate reversal sparks gold ETF outflows and a sharp pullback | Odds not verified | −0.3% | 0–6 months |
| Oil-shock $130 Brent with gold FALLING | Odds not verified | −0.9% | 0–6 months |
+ 1,266 more down-scenarios in the library
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