Equities

AMD

AMD541

← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves AMD, from the 10,580-scenario library.

Near-term: Leans LOWER conviction 38% · 1201 up vs 4588 down scenarios

AMD leans lower near-term — a lean. Of the 5,789 mapped scenarios that move AMD, 1,201 push it up and 4,588 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing AMD lower is China re-imposes global antimony ban (39% likely, ~2.2% on AMD). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.

What flips the down-lean: AI lifts trend growth a full point (46% likely).

Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.

Price & the moves that mattered

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Every scenario that moves AMD — ranked by impact

▲ Pushes AMD up

AI lifts trend growth a full point	46%	+2.0%	3–10 years
EU-US tariff truce averts trade war	36%	+1.1%	0–6 months
AGI-level model arrives	33%	+2.6%	1–3 years
AI agents automate office work	39%	+2.1%	1–3 years

+ 1,197 more up-scenarios in the library

▼ Pushes AMD down

China re-imposes global antimony ban	39%	−2.2%	0–6 months
Full rare-earth magnet halt	27%	−2.4%	0–6 months
US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goods	39%	−1.5%	0–6 months
EU auto cap torn up	24%	−2.4%	0–6 months

+ 4,584 more down-scenarios in the library