Equities
Nvidia
NVDA—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:NVDA · provider market, not official cash close← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for Nvidia, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 19% · 1369 up vs 5004 down scenarios
Nvidia leans lower near-term — a lean. Of the 6,373 mapped scenarios that move Nvidia, 1,369 push it up and 5,004 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Nvidia lower is AI model-weight export rule (event odds not yet verified; ~2.4% estimated impact on Nvidia if it occurs). This week our model already has Nvidia biased higher. Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the down-lean: AGI-level model arrives (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
Nvidia leans higher over the next 7 days: 59.2% chance of a higher close after combining history, scenarios and current evidence.
The forecast swing band is -5.7% to +4.8% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The band is fairly balanced, so the read is more about direction than payoff skew.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 59.6% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from price behavior, the scenario graph, the news mesh after discounting weak headlines, macro, rates and policy. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- AGI-level model arrivesbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 5.92% estimated impact if it hits
- AI agents automate office workbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 4.53% estimated impact if it hits
- AI model-weight export rulebearish pressure · event odds not verified · -2.44% estimated impact if it hits
- China re-imposes global antimony banbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -2.74% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the display threshold in the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the display threshold in the latest pull.
5 weak or unverified headline(s) were discounted before this read was shown.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- 1008 rolling 7d return windowsBase higher rate 59.6%, vol 6.61%, momentum z 0.24.
- Recent volume participationVolume z-score 0.81.
- AGI-level model arrivesEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 5.92% mapped move if the event occurs.
- AI agents automate office workEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 4.53% mapped move if the event occurs.
Why lower
- AI model-weight export ruleEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -2.44% mapped move if the event occurs.
- China re-imposes global antimony banEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -2.74% mapped move if the event occurs.
- US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goodsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -1.85% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Current MacroGuru regime backdropThe week the hike died. Two weeks ago markets priced a September Fed hike near 70% — it is roughly 25% now, and prediction markets put 74% on a hold. That repricing is the whole tape: bitcoin squeezed 14% in a day on a billion dollars of short liquidations and a doubled Treasury buyback, gold sits at a record $4,537, and the dollar is slipping. Oil runs the other way — the US naval blockade of Iran is back on and Brent is up 7.5% on the week. Three catalysts land inside this window: July PCE and Nvidia earnings on Aug 26, then Jackson Hole opens Aug 27. One number clears 70% this week — the lira, at 87%. Everything else sits 58–59%, and we print that rather than manufacture conviction into a wall of events. Every number below is the model's, not an analyst's — and every one now carries its thesis, including the uncomfortable part: four of the five sit within two points of their own twenty-year base rate. The model's contribution this week is a momentum tilt, not an edge. We would rather you read that than not. Window: Aug 20 – 27, 2026
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · OHLCV bars · SEC EDGAR data.sec.gov · Scenario library · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move Nvidia — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Nvidia up
| AGI-level model arrives | Odds not verified | +5.9% | 1–3 years |
| AI lifts trend growth a full point | Odds not verified | +4.1% | 3–10 years |
| AI agents automate office work | Odds not verified | +4.5% | 1–3 years |
| AI productivity boom validates the capex super-cycle | Odds not verified | +3.2% | 1–3 years |
+ 1,365 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Nvidia down
| AI model-weight export rule | Odds not verified | −2.4% | 0–6 months |
| China re-imposes global antimony ban | Odds not verified | −2.7% | 0–6 months |
| Tech-personnel exit ban | Odds not verified | −5.3% | 0–6 months |
| Taiwan customs quarantine | Odds not verified | −5.2% | 0–6 months |
+ 5,000 more down-scenarios in the library
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