Equities
Nvidia
NVDA198← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves Nvidia, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 19% · 1369 up vs 5004 down scenarios
Nvidia leans lower near-term — a lean. Of the 6,373 mapped scenarios that move Nvidia, 1,369 push it up and 5,004 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Nvidia lower is AI model-weight export rule (30% likely, ~2.4% on Nvidia). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
What flips the down-lean: AGI-level model arrives (33% likely).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Every scenario that moves Nvidia — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Nvidia up
| AGI-level model arrives | 33% | +5.9% | 1–3 years |
| AI lifts trend growth a full point | 46% | +4.1% | 3–10 years |
| AI agents automate office work | 39% | +4.5% | 1–3 years |
| AI productivity boom validates the capex super-cycle | 45% | +3.2% | 1–3 years |
+ 1,365 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Nvidia down
| AI model-weight export rule | 30% | −2.4% | 0–6 months |
| China re-imposes global antimony ban | 39% | −2.7% | 0–6 months |
| Tech-personnel exit ban | 9% | −5.3% | 0–6 months |
| Taiwan customs quarantine | 9% | −5.2% | 0–6 months |
+ 5,000 more down-scenarios in the library
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