Equities
Coinbase
COIN166← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves Coinbase, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 36% · 2358 up vs 6177 down scenarios
Coinbase leans lower near-term — a lean. Of the 8,535 mapped scenarios that move Coinbase, 2,358 push it up and 6,177 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Coinbase lower is Cross-exchange liquidation cascade (29% likely, ~3.1% on Coinbase). This week our model already has Coinbase biased flat. Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
What flips the down-lean: Bitcoin doubles into blowoff top (16% likely).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Every scenario that moves Coinbase — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Coinbase up
| Bitcoin doubles into blowoff top | 16% | +4.6% | 0–6 months |
| Ether recovers toward old high | 41% | +3.7% | 6–18 months |
| Spot-ETF and OCC custody mainstreaming entrenches the BTC bid | 46% | +2.5% | 1–3 years |
| Spot-ETF option markets deepen institutional Bitcoin liquidity | 55% | +2.0% | 1–3 years |
+ 2,354 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Coinbase down
| Cross-exchange liquidation cascade | 29% | −3.1% | 0–6 months |
| Crypto-treasury firm NAV collapse | 33% | −2.5% | 0–6 months |
| Perp funding rate spike squeeze | 36% | −2.2% | 0–6 months |
| BTC spot ETF mass redemptions | 26% | −2.9% | 0–6 months |
+ 6,173 more down-scenarios in the library
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