Equities
Semiconductors
SMH598← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves Semiconductors, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 35% · 2149 up vs 6250 down scenarios
Semiconductors leans lower near-term — a lean. Of the 8,399 mapped scenarios that move Semiconductors, 2,149 push it up and 6,250 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Semiconductors lower is China re-imposes global antimony ban (39% likely, ~3.2% on Semiconductors). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
What flips the down-lean: EU-US tariff truce averts trade war (36% likely).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Every scenario that moves Semiconductors — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Semiconductors up
| EU-US tariff truce averts trade war | 36% | +1.7% | 0–6 months |
| AI lifts trend growth a full point | 46% | +2.9% | 3–10 years |
| AGI-level model arrives | 33% | +3.8% | 1–3 years |
| AI agents automate office work | 39% | +3.0% | 1–3 years |
+ 2,145 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Semiconductors down
| China re-imposes global antimony ban | 39% | −3.2% | 0–6 months |
| Full rare-earth magnet halt | 27% | −3.4% | 0–6 months |
| US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goods | 39% | −2.2% | 0–6 months |
| EU auto cap torn up | 24% | −3.4% | 0–6 months |
+ 6,246 more down-scenarios in the library
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