Equities
ASML
ASML1,794← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves ASML, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 43% · 798 up vs 3058 down scenarios
ASML leans lower near-term — high conviction. Of the 3,856 mapped scenarios that move ASML, 798 push it up and 3,058 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing ASML lower is China re-imposes global antimony ban (39% likely, ~1.9% on ASML). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
What flips the down-lean: US-China grand bargain on chips and minerals (29% likely).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
Price & the moves that mattered
Loading chart…
Every scenario that moves ASML — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes ASML up
| US-China grand bargain on chips and minerals | 29% | +1.9% | 6–18 months |
| AI productivity boom validates the capex super-cycle | 45% | +1.2% | 1–3 years |
| TSMC Arizona 2nm ramp dilutes Taiwan single-point-of-failure | 47% | +1.0% | 3–10 years |
| US-China Busan truce extended past Nov 2026 | 12% | +1.7% | 0–6 months |
+ 794 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes ASML down
| China re-imposes global antimony ban | 39% | −1.9% | 0–6 months |
| Tech-personnel exit ban | 9% | −3.9% | 0–6 months |
| Taiwan customs quarantine | 9% | −3.8% | 0–6 months |
| Full rare-earth magnet halt | 27% | −2.1% | 0–6 months |
+ 3,054 more down-scenarios in the library
Related Equities: MicroStrategy · Tech sector · Financials · Coinbase · Semiconductors · JPMorgan · Nvidia · AMD · Run your own what-if → · What others are asking →