Equities
ASML
ASML—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:ASML · provider market, not official cash close← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for ASML, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 43% · 798 up vs 3058 down scenarios
ASML leans lower near-term — high conviction. Of the 3,856 mapped scenarios that move ASML, 798 push it up and 3,058 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing ASML lower is China re-imposes global antimony ban (event odds not yet verified; ~1.9% estimated impact on ASML if it occurs). Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the down-lean: US-China grand bargain on chips and minerals (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
ASML is a close call over the next 7 days: 52.7% chance of a higher close means the evidence is only slightly tilted, not high-conviction.
The forecast swing band is -5.3% to +3.2% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The downside band is wider, so the read is cautious even when the headline probability is close to balanced.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 54.9% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from price behavior, the scenario graph, macro, rates and policy. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- US-China grand bargain on chips and mineralsbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 1.91% estimated impact if it hits
- EU-US tariff truce averts trade warbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 1.01% estimated impact if it hits
- China re-imposes global antimony banbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -1.93% estimated impact if it hits
- US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goodsbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -1.34% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- US-China grand bargain on chips and mineralsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.91% mapped move if the event occurs.
- EU-US tariff truce averts trade warEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.01% mapped move if the event occurs.
- China-allowed Nvidia chip sales resume under dealEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.25% mapped move if the event occurs.
Why lower
- 1008 rolling 7d return windowsBase higher rate 54.9%, vol 5.71%, momentum z -0.67.
- Recent volume participationVolume z-score -1.53.
- China re-imposes global antimony banEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -1.93% mapped move if the event occurs.
- US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goodsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -1.34% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · OHLCV bars · Scenario library · asset mesh + scenario graph · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move ASML — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes ASML up
| US-China grand bargain on chips and minerals | Odds not verified | +1.9% | 6–18 months |
| AI productivity boom validates the capex super-cycle | Odds not verified | +1.2% | 1–3 years |
| TSMC Arizona 2nm ramp dilutes Taiwan single-point-of-failure | Odds not verified | +1.0% | 3–10 years |
| US-China Busan truce extended past Nov 2026 | Odds not verified | +1.7% | 0–6 months |
+ 794 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes ASML down
| China re-imposes global antimony ban | Odds not verified | −1.9% | 0–6 months |
| Tech-personnel exit ban | Odds not verified | −3.9% | 0–6 months |
| Taiwan customs quarantine | Odds not verified | −3.8% | 0–6 months |
| Full rare-earth magnet halt | Odds not verified | −2.1% | 0–6 months |
+ 3,054 more down-scenarios in the library
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