Equities
Robinhood
HOOD—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:HOOD · provider market, not official cash close← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for Robinhood, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 70% · 118 up vs 972 down scenarios
Robinhood leans lower near-term — high conviction. Of the 1,090 mapped scenarios that move Robinhood, 118 push it up and 972 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Robinhood lower is Treasury auction tail shock (event odds not yet verified; ~0.3% estimated impact on Robinhood if it occurs). Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the down-lean: Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easing (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
Robinhood slightly higher over the next 7 days: 55.1% chance of a higher close after combining history, scenarios and current evidence.
The forecast swing band is -7.8% to +6.4% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The band is fairly balanced, so the read is more about direction than payoff skew.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 57.1% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from price behavior, the scenario graph, macro, rates and policy. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easingbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.27% estimated impact if it hits
- Fed declares the last mile won and front-loads relief cutsbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.32% estimated impact if it hits
- Treasury auction tail shockbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -0.32% estimated impact if it hits
- Real-rate reversal sparks gold ETF outflows and a sharp pullbackbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -0.23% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easingEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.27% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Fed declares the last mile won and front-loads relief cutsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.32% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Fed cuts and long yields fall together in a textbook bull rallyEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.29% mapped move if the event occurs.
Why lower
- 1008 rolling 7d return windowsBase higher rate 57.1%, vol 9.02%, momentum z -0.69.
- Recent volume participationVolume z-score -1.14.
- Treasury auction tail shockEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.32% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Real-rate reversal sparks gold ETF outflows and a sharp pullbackEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.23% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · OHLCV bars · Scenario library · asset mesh + scenario graph · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
Loading chart…
Top scenarios that move Robinhood — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Robinhood up
| Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easing | Odds not verified | +0.3% | 0–6 months |
| Fed declares the last mile won and front-loads relief cuts | Odds not verified | +0.3% | 6–18 months |
| Fed cuts and long yields fall together in a textbook bull rally | Odds not verified | +0.3% | 6–18 months |
| Fed-pivot melt-up: rate-cut hopes ignite a multiple expansion | Odds not verified | +0.2% | 0–6 months |
+ 114 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Robinhood down
| Treasury auction tail shock | Odds not verified | −0.3% | 0–6 months |
| Energy-led CPI overshoot lifts breakevens and real yields | Odds not verified | −0.4% | 0–6 months |
| Real-rate reversal sparks gold ETF outflows and a sharp pullback | Odds not verified | −0.2% | 0–6 months |
| Oil-shock $130 Brent with gold FALLING | Odds not verified | −0.7% | 0–6 months |
+ 968 more down-scenarios in the library
Related Equities: — · Run your own what-if → · What others are asking →