Equities
TSMC
TSM443← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves TSMC, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 41% · 1201 up vs 4599 down scenarios
TSMC leans lower near-term — high conviction. Of the 5,800 mapped scenarios that move TSMC, 1,201 push it up and 4,599 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing TSMC lower is China re-imposes global antimony ban (39% likely, ~2.6% on TSMC). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
What flips the down-lean: US-China grand bargain on chips and minerals (29% likely).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Every scenario that moves TSMC — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes TSMC up
| US-China grand bargain on chips and minerals | 29% | +2.8% | 6–18 months |
| TSMC Arizona 2nm ramp dilutes Taiwan single-point-of-failure | 47% | +1.6% | 3–10 years |
| AI productivity boom validates the capex super-cycle | 45% | +1.6% | 1–3 years |
| US-China Busan truce extended past Nov 2026 | 12% | +2.3% | 0–6 months |
+ 1,197 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes TSMC down
| China re-imposes global antimony ban | 39% | −2.6% | 0–6 months |
| Tech-personnel exit ban | 9% | −5.7% | 0–6 months |
| Taiwan customs quarantine | 9% | −5.4% | 0–6 months |
| China reinstates gallium cutoff | 9% | −5.0% | 0–6 months |
+ 4,595 more down-scenarios in the library
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