Equities
TSMC
TSM—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:TSM · provider market, not official cash close← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for TSMC, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 41% · 1201 up vs 4599 down scenarios
TSMC leans lower near-term — high conviction. Of the 5,800 mapped scenarios that move TSMC, 1,201 push it up and 4,599 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing TSMC lower is China re-imposes global antimony ban (event odds not yet verified; ~2.6% estimated impact on TSMC if it occurs). Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the down-lean: US-China grand bargain on chips and minerals (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
TSMC slightly higher over the next 7 days: 53.5% chance of a higher close after combining history, scenarios and current evidence.
The forecast swing band is -5.1% to +3.0% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The downside band is wider, so the read is cautious even when the headline probability is close to balanced.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 55.5% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from the scenario graph, macro, rates and policy. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- US-China grand bargain on chips and mineralsbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 2.78% estimated impact if it hits
- China-allowed Nvidia chip sales resume under dealbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 1.93% estimated impact if it hits
- China re-imposes global antimony banbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -2.57% estimated impact if it hits
- Tech-personnel exit banbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -5.67% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- US-China grand bargain on chips and mineralsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 2.78% mapped move if the event occurs.
- China-allowed Nvidia chip sales resume under dealEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.93% mapped move if the event occurs.
- EU-US tariff truce averts trade warEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.36% mapped move if the event occurs.
Why lower
- Recent volume participationVolume z-score -1.45.
- China re-imposes global antimony banEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -2.57% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Tech-personnel exit banEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -5.67% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Taiwan customs quarantineEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -5.43% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · OHLCV bars · Scenario library · asset mesh + scenario graph · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move TSMC — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes TSMC up
| US-China grand bargain on chips and minerals | Odds not verified | +2.8% | 6–18 months |
| TSMC Arizona 2nm ramp dilutes Taiwan single-point-of-failure | Odds not verified | +1.6% | 3–10 years |
| AI productivity boom validates the capex super-cycle | Odds not verified | +1.6% | 1–3 years |
| US-China Busan truce extended past Nov 2026 | Odds not verified | +2.3% | 0–6 months |
+ 1,197 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes TSMC down
| China re-imposes global antimony ban | Odds not verified | −2.6% | 0–6 months |
| Tech-personnel exit ban | Odds not verified | −5.7% | 0–6 months |
| Taiwan customs quarantine | Odds not verified | −5.4% | 0–6 months |
| China reinstates gallium cutoff | Odds not verified | −5.0% | 0–6 months |
+ 4,595 more down-scenarios in the library
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