What if BOJ becomes the swing factor in global duration as it exits ZIRP?
With the last zero-rate anchor lifting, BOJ policy steps drive global long-end yields, raising cross-market rate volatility and the term premium as Japanese flows turn from buyer to seller.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. With the last zero-rate anchor lifting, BOJ policy steps drive global long-end yields, raising cross-market rate volatility and the term premium as Japanese flows turn from buyer to seller. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Yield-curve slope ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.48–+0.05% · other way +0.75% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.46–+0.05% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.04–+1.38% · other way -7.07% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -7.86–+1.96% · other way +23.24% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.5–+1.0% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.63–+0.63% · other way +9.75% (n=11) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -8.88–+3.64% · other way +2.79% (n=11) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -4.09–+3.26% · other way +1.3% (n=12) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -5.12–+3.87% · other way +2.2% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.37–+0.63% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.35–+0.34% · other way +3.44% (n=12) |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.93–+0.36% · other way -0.27% (n=12) |
| 14 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.18–+0.12% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 35 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -7.4% | 78% | 9 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.1% | 73% | 26 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.3% · 5d -7.6% | 71% | 14 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.7% | 75% | 4 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.4% | 63% | 27 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -4.3% | 66% | 29 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.4% | 60% | 25 | 0.16 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 35 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 57% | 35 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 27 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 54% | 35 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -4.6% | 53% | 19 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 48% | 27 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 49% | 35 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |