What if JGB 30y hits a record as BoJ QT meets debt-funded stimulus?
BoJ balance-sheet runoff collides with a fresh debt-financed fiscal package, sending 30y JGB yields to record highs and forcing a global duration re-pricing through the carry channel.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. BoJ balance-sheet runoff collides with a fresh debt-financed fiscal package, sending 30y JGB yields to record highs and forcing a global duration re-pricing through the carry channel. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Yield-curve slope ▲ · Fed policy path ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.77–-0.39% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 2 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.82–-0.25% · other way +2.13% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.73–+0.75% · other way +19.61% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -7.2–+1.64% · other way +5.04% (n=10) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -8.73–+2.46% · other way +6.67% (n=10) |
| 7 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist +0.83–+6.67% · other way +5.9% (n=12) |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.58–+1.37% · other way -1.46% (n=12) |
| 9 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -0.2–+8.31% · other way +7.8% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -6.26–+1.78% · other way +0.91% (n=10) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.38–-0.15% · other way +2.89% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.65–+0.64% · other way +3.07% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.61–+0.79% · other way +12.41% (n=8) |
| 14 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -5.7–+1.14% · other way -8.33% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 66% | 39 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -5.9% | 70% | 23 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.0% | 65% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -7.5% | 65% | 37 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -3.6% | 61% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.3% | 63% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.6% · 5d -5.3% | 62% | 37 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.2% | 63% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -3.7% | 62% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.7% · 5d +0.5% | 61% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +3bp | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |