What if a secondary-sanctions crackdown on Russian and Iranian oil disrupts payments and shipping?
A broad secondary-sanctions crackdown on entities handling Russian and Iranian oil disrupts payment and shipping channels, removing barrels and raising transaction frictions.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A broad secondary-sanctions crackdown on entities handling Russian and Iranian oil disrupts payment and shipping channels, removing barrels and raising transaction frictions. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.5% hist +1.98–+4.3% · other way -10.0% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.3% hist -2.52–-1.44% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.3% hist +0.0–+1.9% · other way -1.11% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.2% hist -2.03–-0.83% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -1.79–-0.95% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 6 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.8% hist -1.09–+1.84% · other way +2.63% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.98–+0.01% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 8 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.4–-0.12% · other way +0.52% (n=12) |
| 9 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.9% hist +0.61–+1.41% · other way -0.06% (n=12) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -2.74–+0.07% · other way -1.38% (n=12) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.36–+0.5% · other way -2.74% (n=11) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.24–-0.5% · other way +7.95% (n=12) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.61–-0.28% · other way +2.33% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.19–-0.01% · other way +1.28% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.3% | 75% | 34 | 0.48 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -1.6% | 71% | 34 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.2% · 5d +3.3% | 71% | 22 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +5.9% · 5d +0.7% | 67% | 22 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.6% | 69% | 34 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +7bp | 64% | 39 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 68% | 34 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.6% | 67% | 34 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.5% | 64% | 34 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.6% | 65% | 35 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +7bp | 62% | 39 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +4.6% · 5d -5.9% ↺ fades | 66% | 23 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -0.5% | 63% | 34 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -7.4% | 67% | 10 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |