Equities
Broadcom
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Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 30% · 1211 up vs 4598 down scenarios
Broadcom leans lower near-term — a lean. Of the 5,809 mapped scenarios that move Broadcom, 1,211 push it up and 4,598 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Broadcom lower is AI model-weight export rule (event odds not yet verified; ~1.9% estimated impact on Broadcom if it occurs). Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the down-lean: AGI-level model arrives (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
Broadcom is a close call over the next 7 days: 52.8% chance of a higher close means the evidence is only slightly tilted, not high-conviction.
The forecast swing band is -5.7% to +4.2% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The downside band is wider, so the read is cautious even when the headline probability is close to balanced.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 54.1% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from the scenario graph, macro, rates and policy. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- AGI-level model arrivesbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 3.18% estimated impact if it hits
- EU-US tariff truce averts trade warbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 1.13% estimated impact if it hits
- AI model-weight export rulebearish pressure · event odds not verified · -1.89% estimated impact if it hits
- China re-imposes global antimony banbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -2.17% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- 1008 rolling 7d return windowsBase higher rate 54.1%, vol 6.58%, momentum z 0.24.
- AGI-level model arrivesEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 3.18% mapped move if the event occurs.
- EU-US tariff truce averts trade warEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.13% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Inference-demand inflection re-accelerates accelerator ordersEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.58% mapped move if the event occurs.
Why lower
- Recent volume participationVolume z-score -0.87.
- AI model-weight export ruleEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -1.89% mapped move if the event occurs.
- China re-imposes global antimony banEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -2.17% mapped move if the event occurs.
- US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goodsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -1.47% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · OHLCV bars · SEC EDGAR data.sec.gov · Scenario library · asset mesh + scenario graph · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move Broadcom — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Broadcom up
| AGI-level model arrives | Odds not verified | +3.2% | 1–3 years |
| AI productivity boom validates the capex super-cycle | Odds not verified | +1.9% | 1–3 years |
| AI datacenters hit 100GW | Odds not verified | +1.9% | 1–3 years |
| Token-demand flywheel: cheaper inference lifts total capex | Odds not verified | +1.4% | 1–3 years |
+ 1,207 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Broadcom down
| AI model-weight export rule | Odds not verified | −1.9% | 0–6 months |
| China re-imposes global antimony ban | Odds not verified | −2.2% | 0–6 months |
| Full rare-earth magnet halt | Odds not verified | −2.4% | 0–6 months |
| US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goods | Odds not verified | −1.5% | 0–6 months |
+ 4,594 more down-scenarios in the library
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