Equities
Broadcom
AVGO364← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves Broadcom, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 30% · 1211 up vs 4598 down scenarios
Broadcom leans lower near-term — a lean. Of the 5,809 mapped scenarios that move Broadcom, 1,211 push it up and 4,598 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Broadcom lower is AI model-weight export rule (30% likely, ~1.9% on Broadcom). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
What flips the down-lean: AGI-level model arrives (33% likely).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Every scenario that moves Broadcom — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Broadcom up
| AGI-level model arrives | 33% | +3.2% | 1–3 years |
| AI productivity boom validates the capex super-cycle | 45% | +1.9% | 1–3 years |
| AI datacenters hit 100GW | 39% | +1.9% | 1–3 years |
| Token-demand flywheel: cheaper inference lifts total capex | 46% | +1.4% | 1–3 years |
+ 1,207 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Broadcom down
| AI model-weight export rule | 30% | −1.9% | 0–6 months |
| China re-imposes global antimony ban | 39% | −2.2% | 0–6 months |
| Full rare-earth magnet halt | 27% | −2.4% | 0–6 months |
| US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goods | 39% | −1.5% | 0–6 months |
+ 4,594 more down-scenarios in the library
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