EUR/USD

EURUSD1.14

← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves EUR/USD, from the 10,580-scenario library.

Near-term: Leans LOWER conviction 47% · 778 up vs 1987 down scenarios

EUR/USD leans lower near-term — high conviction. Of the 2,765 mapped scenarios that move EUR/USD, 778 push it up and 1,987 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing EUR/USD lower is DXY melt-up triggers an EM sudden stop and reserve drain (30% likely, ~1.5% on EUR/USD). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.

What flips the down-lean: Structural dollar-bear cycle sparks a broad EM-FX renaissance (35% likely).

Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.

Price & the moves that mattered

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Every scenario that moves EUR/USD — ranked by impact

▲ Pushes EUR/USD up

Structural dollar-bear cycle sparks a broad EM-FX renaissance	35%	+1.3%	1–3 years
Central-bank gold super-surge tops 1,300t/yr	49%	+0.9%	1–3 years
Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the line	37%	+0.4%	0–6 months
De-dollarization reshapes EM reserve management and trade invoicing	30%	+1.0%	3–10 years

+ 774 more up-scenarios in the library

▼ Pushes EUR/USD down

DXY melt-up triggers an EM sudden stop and reserve drain	30%	−1.5%	0–6 months
Risk-off dollar spike on geopolitical shock	27%	−1.3%	0–6 months
Risk-off dollar spike triggers broad EM-FX intervention	26%	−1.3%	0–6 months
Hidden $80tn FX-swap dollar debt can't roll, basis blows out	19%	−1.7%	0–6 months

+ 1,983 more down-scenarios in the library