Chinese yuan

CNY6.77

← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves Chinese yuan, from the 10,580-scenario library.

Near-term: Leans LOWER conviction 34% · 1133 up vs 2200 down scenarios

Chinese yuan leans lower near-term — a lean. Of the 3,333 mapped scenarios that move Chinese yuan, 1,133 push it up and 2,200 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Chinese yuan lower is China re-imposes global antimony ban (39% likely, ~1.3% on Chinese yuan). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.

What flips the down-lean: Vietnam FTSE EM go-live triggers $6bn+ passive inflow wave (78% likely).

Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.

Price & the moves that mattered

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Every scenario that moves Chinese yuan — ranked by impact

▲ Pushes Chinese yuan up

Vietnam FTSE EM go-live triggers $6bn+ passive inflow wave	78%	+0.4%	0–6 months
EU-US tariff truce averts trade war	36%	+0.8%	0–6 months
Global tariff de-escalation ignites risk-on	37%	+1.4%	6–18 months
USMCA review renewed, Mexico tariff cloud lifts	52%	+0.9%	1–3 years

+ 1,129 more up-scenarios in the library

▼ Pushes Chinese yuan down

China re-imposes global antimony ban	39%	−1.3%	0–6 months
US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goods	39%	−1.3%	0–6 months
EU auto cap torn up	24%	−1.6%	0–6 months
China re-imposes graphite license curbs	33%	−1.1%	0–6 months

+ 2,196 more down-scenarios in the library