FX
Chinese yuan
CNY6.7103Latest recorded close · 2026-09-01← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for Chinese yuan, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 34% · 1133 up vs 2200 down scenarios
Chinese yuan leans lower near-term — a lean. Of the 3,333 mapped scenarios that move Chinese yuan, 1,133 push it up and 2,200 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Chinese yuan lower is China re-imposes global antimony ban (event odds not yet verified; ~1.3% estimated impact on Chinese yuan if it occurs). Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the down-lean: Vietnam FTSE EM go-live triggers $6bn+ passive inflow wave (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
Chinese yuan slightly lower over the next 7 days: 53.8% chance of a lower close after combining history, scenarios and current evidence.
The forecast swing band is -0.7% to +0.2% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The downside band is wider, so the read is cautious even when the headline probability is close to balanced.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 48.3% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from price behavior, the scenario graph. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- Vietnam FTSE EM go-live triggers $6bn+ passive inflow wavebullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.42% estimated impact if it hits
- EU-US tariff truce averts trade warbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.78% estimated impact if it hits
- China re-imposes global antimony banbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -1.33% estimated impact if it hits
- US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goodsbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -1.29% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- Vietnam FTSE EM go-live triggers $6bn+ passive inflow waveEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.42% mapped move if the event occurs.
- EU-US tariff truce averts trade warEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.78% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Global tariff de-escalation ignites risk-onEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.35% mapped move if the event occurs.
Why lower
- 1008 rolling 7d return windowsBase higher rate 48.3%, vol 0.60%, momentum z -0.29.
- China re-imposes global antimony banEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -1.33% mapped move if the event occurs.
- US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goodsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -1.29% mapped move if the event occurs.
- China re-imposes graphite license curbsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -1.13% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · Scenario library · asset mesh + scenario graph · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move Chinese yuan — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Chinese yuan up
| Vietnam FTSE EM go-live triggers $6bn+ passive inflow wave | Odds not verified | +0.4% | 0–6 months |
| EU-US tariff truce averts trade war | Odds not verified | +0.8% | 0–6 months |
| Global tariff de-escalation ignites risk-on | Odds not verified | +1.4% | 6–18 months |
| USMCA review renewed, Mexico tariff cloud lifts | Odds not verified | +0.9% | 1–3 years |
+ 1,129 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Chinese yuan down
| China re-imposes global antimony ban | Odds not verified | −1.3% | 0–6 months |
| US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goods | Odds not verified | −1.3% | 0–6 months |
| EU auto cap torn up | Odds not verified | −1.6% | 0–6 months |
| China re-imposes graphite license curbs | Odds not verified | −1.1% | 0–6 months |
+ 2,196 more down-scenarios in the library
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