GBP/USD

GBPUSD—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:GBP · provider market, not official cash close

← all asset outlooks · the strongest mapped scenarios for GBP/USD, from the 10,580-scenario library.

Current outlook limited

The latest forecast is outside its freshness window; the price history has not refreshed within three days. The scenario map remains available. MacroGuru is withholding a current probability and static price until the inputs refresh.

Missing data is a coverage gap, not a neutral market signal. Historical scenarios remain visible for research and search indexing.

Scenario map 636 up vs 1600 down scenarios

GBP/USD has 2,236 mapped macro scenarios. The library contains 636 upside and 1,600 downside channels—more downside channels. This is a scenario inventory, not a current directional forecast.

Scenario relationships are research context, not a current market call. Informational, not investment advice.

Current Decision Receipts for GBP/USD

Read the event first. Each percentage below is the frozen probability of the named macro event—not the probability that GBP/USD rises or falls, and not an expected return. The direction is only the receipt's conditional watchlist instruction if that event resolves true.

97%event probabilityconditional monitor / no directional claim for GBPUSD if the event resolves true

The Bank of England holds at 3.75%

The MPC leaves Bank Rate unchanged on Thursday. Above-target inflation blocks a cut; softer labour data blocks a hike.

Verify the canonical asset-to-receipt index →

Historical price record

Last recorded observation: 2026-08-13. Shown as historical context, not a current market price.

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Top scenarios that move GBP/USD — ranked by impact

▲ Pushes GBP/USD up

Central-bank gold super-surge tops 1,300t/yr	Odds not verified	+0.7%	1–3 years
Structural dollar-bear cycle sparks a broad EM-FX renaissance	Odds not verified	+1.0%	1–3 years
De-dollarization reshapes EM reserve management and trade invoicing	Odds not verified	+0.8%	3–10 years
Multipolar reserve order erodes dollar primacy	Odds not verified	+1.0%	3–10 years

+ 632 more up-scenarios in the library

▼ Pushes GBP/USD down

DXY melt-up triggers an EM sudden stop and reserve drain	Odds not verified	−1.2%	0–6 months
Risk-off dollar spike on geopolitical shock	Odds not verified	−1.0%	0–6 months
Risk-off dollar spike triggers broad EM-FX intervention	Odds not verified	−1.0%	0–6 months
Hidden $80tn FX-swap dollar debt can't roll, basis blows out	Odds not verified	−1.3%	0–6 months

+ 1,596 more down-scenarios in the library