Turkish lira

TRY46.69

← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves Turkish lira, from the 10,580-scenario library.

Near-term: Leans LOWER conviction 14% · 1455 up vs 2725 down scenarios

Turkish lira leans lower near-term — finely balanced. Of the 4,180 mapped scenarios that move Turkish lira, 1,455 push it up and 2,725 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Turkish lira lower is DXY melt-up triggers an EM sudden stop and reserve drain (30% likely, ~2.0% on Turkish lira). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.

What flips the down-lean: Vietnam FTSE EM go-live triggers $6bn+ passive inflow wave (78% likely).

Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.

Price & the moves that mattered

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Every scenario that moves Turkish lira — ranked by impact

▲ Pushes Turkish lira up

Vietnam FTSE EM go-live triggers $6bn+ passive inflow wave	78%	+0.9%	0–6 months
JPMorgan GBI-EM full 10% India weight pulls passive inflows	49%	+0.8%	0–6 months
Structural dollar-bear cycle sparks a broad EM-FX renaissance	35%	+1.9%	1–3 years
Banxico's wide rate gap to the Fed sustains peso carry	34%	+0.7%	0–6 months

+ 1,451 more up-scenarios in the library

▼ Pushes Turkish lira down

DXY melt-up triggers an EM sudden stop and reserve drain	30%	−2.0%	0–6 months
Risk-off dollar spike triggers broad EM-FX intervention	26%	−1.8%	0–6 months
Rupiah capital-flight break sends USD/IDR past 17,500	34%	−1.4%	0–6 months
SBV burns reserves defending dong past 26,500 floor	35%	−1.3%	0–6 months

+ 2,721 more down-scenarios in the library