FX
Turkish lira
TRY48.270Latest recorded close · 2026-09-01← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for Turkish lira, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 15% · 1455 up vs 2725 down scenarios
Turkish lira leans lower near-term — finely balanced. Of the 4,180 mapped scenarios that move Turkish lira, 1,455 push it up and 2,725 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Turkish lira lower is DXY melt-up triggers an EM sudden stop and reserve drain (event odds not yet verified; ~2.0% estimated impact on Turkish lira if it occurs). This week our model already has Turkish lira biased higher. Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the down-lean: Vietnam FTSE EM go-live triggers $6bn+ passive inflow wave (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
Turkish lira strongly higher over the next 7 days: 86.8% chance of a higher close after combining history, scenarios and current evidence.
The forecast swing band is -1.1% to +0.7% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The downside band is wider, so the read is cautious even when the headline probability is close to balanced.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 87.0% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from price behavior, the scenario graph. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- Vietnam FTSE EM go-live triggers $6bn+ passive inflow wavebullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.91% estimated impact if it hits
- JPMorgan GBI-EM full 10% India weight pulls passive inflowsbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.76% estimated impact if it hits
- DXY melt-up triggers an EM sudden stop and reserve drainbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -2.02% estimated impact if it hits
- Rupiah capital-flight break sends USD/IDR past 17,500bearish pressure · event odds not verified · -1.37% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- 1008 rolling 7d return windowsBase higher rate 87.0%, vol 1.18%, momentum z 0.34.
- Vietnam FTSE EM go-live triggers $6bn+ passive inflow waveEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.91% mapped move if the event occurs.
- JPMorgan GBI-EM full 10% India weight pulls passive inflowsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.76% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Banxico's wide rate gap to the Fed sustains peso carryEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.72% mapped move if the event occurs.
Why lower
- DXY melt-up triggers an EM sudden stop and reserve drainEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -2.02% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Rupiah capital-flight break sends USD/IDR past 17,500Event odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -1.37% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Risk-off dollar spike triggers broad EM-FX interventionEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -1.82% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · Scenario library · asset mesh + scenario graph · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move Turkish lira — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Turkish lira up
| Vietnam FTSE EM go-live triggers $6bn+ passive inflow wave | Odds not verified | +0.9% | 0–6 months |
| JPMorgan GBI-EM full 10% India weight pulls passive inflows | Odds not verified | +0.8% | 0–6 months |
| Structural dollar-bear cycle sparks a broad EM-FX renaissance | Odds not verified | +1.9% | 1–3 years |
| Banxico's wide rate gap to the Fed sustains peso carry | Odds not verified | +0.7% | 0–6 months |
+ 1,451 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Turkish lira down
| DXY melt-up triggers an EM sudden stop and reserve drain | Odds not verified | −2.0% | 0–6 months |
| Risk-off dollar spike triggers broad EM-FX intervention | Odds not verified | −1.8% | 0–6 months |
| Rupiah capital-flight break sends USD/IDR past 17,500 | Odds not verified | −1.4% | 0–6 months |
| SBV burns reserves defending dong past 26,500 floor | Odds not verified | −1.3% | 0–6 months |
+ 2,721 more down-scenarios in the library
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