Equities
Utilities
XLU45.39← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves Utilities, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans HIGHER
conviction 100% · 97 up vs 0 down scenarios
Utilities leans higher near-term — high conviction. Of the 97 mapped scenarios that move Utilities, 97 push it up and 0 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews higher. The lead driver pushing Utilities higher is Mortgage renewal cliff (49% likely, ~0.1% on Utilities). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
Price & the moves that mattered
Loading chart…
Every scenario that moves Utilities — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Utilities up
| Mortgage renewal cliff | 49% | +0.1% | 0–6 months |
| Sunbelt builder incentive war | 40% | +0.1% | 6–18 months |
| Non-QM lender failure cascade | 16% | +0.1% | 0–6 months |
| UK stagflation entrenches | 32% | +0.1% | 6–18 months |
+ 93 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Utilities down
| — |
Related Equities: MicroStrategy · Tech sector · Financials · Coinbase · Semiconductors · JPMorgan · Nvidia · AMD · Run your own what-if → · What others are asking →