What if BOJ normalization lures Japanese savings home, draining global duration?
As hedged JGB yields turn attractive, Japanese institutions repatriate from Treasuries and bunds, lifting global term premia and the yen while pressuring DM duration and risk.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. As hedged JGB yields turn attractive, Japanese institutions repatriate from Treasuries and bunds, lifting global term premia and the yen while pressuring DM duration and risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▼ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Yield-curve slope ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.