Equities
Freeport (copper)
FCX73.730Latest recorded close · 2026-09-01← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for Freeport (copper), from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans HIGHER
conviction 16% · 791 up vs 1028 down scenarios
Freeport (copper) leans higher near-term — finely balanced. Of the 1,819 mapped scenarios that move Freeport (copper), 791 push it up and 1,028 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews higher. The lead driver pushing Freeport (copper) higher is PBOC trims policy rates (LPR/MLF) to revive credit demand (event odds not yet verified; ~1.6% estimated impact on Freeport (copper) if it occurs). Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the up-lean: Verified room-temperature superconductor (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
Freeport (copper) is a close call over the next 7 days: 52.4% chance of a higher close means the evidence is only slightly tilted, not high-conviction.
The forecast swing band is -4.7% to +5.0% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The band is fairly balanced, so the read is more about direction than payoff skew.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 52.7% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from price behavior, the scenario graph. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- PBOC trims policy rates (LPR/MLF) to revive credit demandbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 1.56% estimated impact if it hits
- PBOC cuts the RRR to flood the banking system with liquiditybullish pressure · event odds not verified · 1.44% estimated impact if it hits
- China property bust collapses copper demand into glutbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -1.58% estimated impact if it hits
- China demand-shock to commoditiesbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -2.3% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- PBOC trims policy rates (LPR/MLF) to revive credit demandEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.56% mapped move if the event occurs.
- PBOC cuts the RRR to flood the banking system with liquidityEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.44% mapped move if the event occurs.
- PBOC unleashes a stimulus bazooka to defibrillate demandEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.97% mapped move if the event occurs.
Why lower
- 1008 rolling 7d return windowsBase higher rate 52.7%, vol 6.09%, momentum z -0.86.
- Recent volume participationVolume z-score -0.45.
- China property bust collapses copper demand into glutEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -1.58% mapped move if the event occurs.
- China demand-shock to commoditiesEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -2.3% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · OHLCV bars · Scenario library · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move Freeport (copper) — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Freeport (copper) up
| PBOC trims policy rates (LPR/MLF) to revive credit demand | Odds not verified | +1.6% | 0–6 months |
| PBOC cuts the RRR to flood the banking system with liquidity | Odds not verified | +1.4% | 0–6 months |
| Copper supply shock | Odds not verified | +4.0% | 1–3 years |
| China copper-import surge front-runs grid-spending push | Odds not verified | +1.1% | 0–6 months |
+ 787 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Freeport (copper) down
| Verified room-temperature superconductor | Odds not verified | −9.6% | 3–10 years |
| China property bust collapses copper demand into glut | Odds not verified | −1.6% | 6–18 months |
| Commodity reflation trade unwinds | Odds not verified | −1.9% | 0–6 months |
| China demand-shock to commodities | Odds not verified | −2.3% | 6–18 months |
+ 1,024 more down-scenarios in the library
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