Equities
Freeport (copper)
FCX60.43← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves Freeport (copper), from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans HIGHER
conviction 17% · 791 up vs 1028 down scenarios
Freeport (copper) leans higher near-term — finely balanced. Of the 1,819 mapped scenarios that move Freeport (copper), 791 push it up and 1,028 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews higher. The lead driver pushing Freeport (copper) higher is PBOC trims policy rates (LPR/MLF) to revive credit demand (40% likely, ~1.6% on Freeport (copper)). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
What flips the up-lean: Verified room-temperature superconductor (13% likely).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Every scenario that moves Freeport (copper) — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Freeport (copper) up
| PBOC trims policy rates (LPR/MLF) to revive credit demand | 40% | +1.6% | 0–6 months |
| PBOC cuts the RRR to flood the banking system with liquidity | 42% | +1.4% | 0–6 months |
| Copper supply shock | 28% | +4.0% | 1–3 years |
| China copper-import surge front-runs grid-spending push | 39% | +1.1% | 0–6 months |
+ 787 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Freeport (copper) down
| Verified room-temperature superconductor | 13% | −9.6% | 3–10 years |
| China property bust collapses copper demand into glut | 58% | −1.6% | 6–18 months |
| Commodity reflation trade unwinds | 19% | −1.9% | 0–6 months |
| China demand-shock to commodities | 31% | −2.3% | 6–18 months |
+ 1,024 more down-scenarios in the library
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