Equities
Intel
INTC123← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves Intel, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 45% · 500 up vs 1672 down scenarios
Intel leans lower near-term — high conviction. Of the 2,172 mapped scenarios that move Intel, 500 push it up and 1,672 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Intel lower is China re-imposes global antimony ban (39% likely, ~1.2% on Intel). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
What flips the down-lean: AGI-level model arrives (33% likely).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Every scenario that moves Intel — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Intel up
| AGI-level model arrives | 33% | +1.4% | 1–3 years |
| AI lifts trend growth a full point | 46% | +1.0% | 3–10 years |
| EU-US tariff truce averts trade war | 36% | +0.6% | 0–6 months |
| AI agents automate office work | 39% | +1.1% | 1–3 years |
+ 496 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Intel down
| China re-imposes global antimony ban | 39% | −1.2% | 0–6 months |
| Full rare-earth magnet halt | 27% | −1.2% | 0–6 months |
| US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goods | 39% | −0.8% | 0–6 months |
| EU auto cap torn up | 24% | −1.2% | 0–6 months |
+ 1,668 more down-scenarios in the library
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