Equities
Intel
INTC—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:INTC · provider market, not official cash close← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for Intel, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 45% · 500 up vs 1672 down scenarios
Intel leans lower near-term — high conviction. Of the 2,172 mapped scenarios that move Intel, 500 push it up and 1,672 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Intel lower is China re-imposes global antimony ban (event odds not yet verified; ~1.2% estimated impact on Intel if it occurs). Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the down-lean: AGI-level model arrives (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
Intel is a close call over the next 7 days: 52.2% chance of a lower close means the evidence is only slightly tilted, not high-conviction.
The forecast swing band is -7.3% to +5.5% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The downside band is wider, so the read is cautious even when the headline probability is close to balanced.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 49.6% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from price behavior, the scenario graph, macro, rates and policy. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- EU-US tariff truce averts trade warbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.57% estimated impact if it hits
- US-China trade détentebullish pressure · event odds not verified · 1.36% estimated impact if it hits
- China re-imposes global antimony banbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -1.18% estimated impact if it hits
- Full rare-earth magnet haltbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -1.25% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- EU-US tariff truce averts trade warEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.57% mapped move if the event occurs.
- US-China trade détenteEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.36% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Global tariff de-escalation ignites risk-onEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.88% mapped move if the event occurs.
Why lower
- 1008 rolling 7d return windowsBase higher rate 49.6%, vol 8.52%, momentum z -0.10.
- Recent volume participationVolume z-score -1.70.
- China re-imposes global antimony banEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -1.18% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Full rare-earth magnet haltEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -1.25% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · OHLCV bars · SEC EDGAR data.sec.gov · Scenario library · asset mesh + scenario graph · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move Intel — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Intel up
| AGI-level model arrives | Odds not verified | +1.4% | 1–3 years |
| AI lifts trend growth a full point | Odds not verified | +1.0% | 3–10 years |
| EU-US tariff truce averts trade war | Odds not verified | +0.6% | 0–6 months |
| AI agents automate office work | Odds not verified | +1.1% | 1–3 years |
+ 496 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Intel down
| China re-imposes global antimony ban | Odds not verified | −1.2% | 0–6 months |
| Full rare-earth magnet halt | Odds not verified | −1.2% | 0–6 months |
| US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goods | Odds not verified | −0.8% | 0–6 months |
| EU auto cap torn up | Odds not verified | −1.2% | 0–6 months |
+ 1,668 more down-scenarios in the library
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