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Friday, July 03, 2026 · The News-Board From the Future
Equities

Marvell

MRVL251
← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves Marvell, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER conviction 38% · 1201 up vs 4588 down scenarios
Marvell leans lower near-term — a lean. Of the 5,789 mapped scenarios that move Marvell, 1,201 push it up and 4,588 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Marvell lower is China re-imposes global antimony ban (39% likely, ~2.2% on Marvell). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
What flips the down-lean: AI lifts trend growth a full point (46% likely).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.

Price & the moves that mattered

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Every scenario that moves Marvell — ranked by impact

▲ Pushes Marvell up

AI lifts trend growth a full point46%+2.0%3–10 years
EU-US tariff truce averts trade war36%+1.1%0–6 months
AGI-level model arrives33%+2.6%1–3 years
AI agents automate office work39%+2.1%1–3 years
+ 1,197 more up-scenarios in the library

▼ Pushes Marvell down

China re-imposes global antimony ban39%−2.2%0–6 months
Full rare-earth magnet halt27%−2.4%0–6 months
US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goods39%−1.5%0–6 months
EU auto cap torn up24%−2.4%0–6 months
+ 4,584 more down-scenarios in the library
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