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Friday, July 03, 2026 · The News-Board From the Future
Equities

Qualcomm

QCOM175
← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves Qualcomm, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER conviction 42% · 627 up vs 2241 down scenarios
Qualcomm leans lower near-term — high conviction. Of the 2,868 mapped scenarios that move Qualcomm, 627 push it up and 2,241 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Qualcomm lower is China re-imposes global antimony ban (39% likely, ~1.5% on Qualcomm). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
What flips the down-lean: EU-US tariff truce averts trade war (36% likely).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.

Price & the moves that mattered

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Every scenario that moves Qualcomm — ranked by impact

▲ Pushes Qualcomm up

EU-US tariff truce averts trade war36%+0.8%0–6 months
AGI-level model arrives33%+1.8%1–3 years
AI lifts trend growth a full point46%+1.3%3–10 years
AI agents automate office work39%+1.5%1–3 years
+ 623 more up-scenarios in the library

▼ Pushes Qualcomm down

China re-imposes global antimony ban39%−1.5%0–6 months
Full rare-earth magnet halt27%−1.6%0–6 months
EU auto cap torn up24%−1.6%0–6 months
US slaps 40% tariff on Vietnam transshipped-content goods39%−1.0%0–6 months
+ 2,237 more down-scenarios in the library
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