Equities
RTX
RTX197← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves RTX, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans HIGHER
conviction 67% · 1101 up vs 195 down scenarios
RTX leans higher near-term — high conviction. Of the 1,296 mapped scenarios that move RTX, 1,101 push it up and 195 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews higher. The lead driver pushing RTX higher is China re-imposes global antimony ban (39% likely, ~0.8% on RTX). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
What flips the up-lean: Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the line (37% likely).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Every scenario that moves RTX — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes RTX up
| China re-imposes global antimony ban | 39% | +0.8% | 0–6 months |
| NATO commits to 5%-of-GDP by 2035 | 50% | +1.3% | 3–10 years |
| FY27 $1.5T US defense request cements a multi-year procurement boom | 54% | +1.1% | 1–3 years |
| NATO 5%-of-GDP rearmament supercycle | 41% | +1.3% | 1–3 years |
+ 1,097 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes RTX down
| Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the line | 37% | −1.0% | 0–6 months |
| Russia and Ukraine sign a final peace settlement | 41% | −0.9% | 1–3 years |
| Ukraine ceasefire de-rates European defense stocks from records | 36% | −0.9% | 6–18 months |
| Peace deal de-rates Rheinmetall and EU defense | 28% | −1.1% | 6–18 months |
+ 191 more down-scenarios in the library
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