Equities
RTX
RTX209.78Latest recorded close · 2026-09-01← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for RTX, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans HIGHER
conviction 67% · 1101 up vs 195 down scenarios
RTX leans higher near-term — high conviction. Of the 1,296 mapped scenarios that move RTX, 1,101 push it up and 195 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews higher. The lead driver pushing RTX higher is China re-imposes global antimony ban (event odds not yet verified; ~0.8% estimated impact on RTX if it occurs). Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the up-lean: Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the line (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
RTX slightly higher over the next 7 days: 56.2% chance of a higher close after combining history, scenarios and current evidence.
The forecast swing band is -1.8% to +3.2% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The upside side of the band is wider, so the read has a positive payoff skew even when the headline probability is close to balanced.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 54.5% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from the scenario graph. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- China re-imposes global antimony banbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.77% estimated impact if it hits
- Russia's Africa Corps deepens Sahel footprintbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.84% estimated impact if it hits
- Ukraine ceasefire de-rates European defense stocks from recordsbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -0.91% estimated impact if it hits
- Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the linebearish pressure · event odds not verified · -0.98% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- China re-imposes global antimony banEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.77% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Russia's Africa Corps deepens Sahel footprintEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.84% mapped move if the event occurs.
- US approves $5B Taiwan arms package; Beijing sanctions primesEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.01% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Scenario/news pressure transmits through the asset mapMesh score +0.00; scenario score +0.72.
Why lower
- Recent volume participationVolume z-score -1.09.
- Ukraine ceasefire de-rates European defense stocks from recordsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.91% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the lineEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.98% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Peace deal de-rates Rheinmetall and EU defenseEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -1.12% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · OHLCV bars · Scenario library · asset mesh + scenario graph · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move RTX — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes RTX up
| China re-imposes global antimony ban | Odds not verified | +0.8% | 0–6 months |
| NATO commits to 5%-of-GDP by 2035 | Odds not verified | +1.3% | 3–10 years |
| Iran ballistic salvo overwhelms Israeli defenses | Odds not verified | +1.3% | 0–6 months |
| US approves $5B Taiwan arms package; Beijing sanctions primes | Odds not verified | +1.0% | 0–6 months |
+ 1,097 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes RTX down
| Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the line | Odds not verified | −1.0% | 0–6 months |
| Ukraine ceasefire de-rates European defense stocks from records | Odds not verified | −0.9% | 6–18 months |
| Peace deal de-rates Rheinmetall and EU defense | Odds not verified | −1.1% | 6–18 months |
| Détente caps defense spending, peace dividend returns | Odds not verified | −1.1% | 1–3 years |
+ 191 more down-scenarios in the library
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