Equities
Chevron
CVX208.85Latest recorded close · 2026-09-01← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for Chevron, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans HIGHER
conviction 34% · 523 up vs 545 down scenarios
Chevron leans higher near-term — a lean. Of the 1,068 mapped scenarios that move Chevron, 523 push it up and 545 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews higher. The lead driver pushing Chevron higher is Russian refinery drone wave (event odds not yet verified; ~1.6% estimated impact on Chevron if it occurs). Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the up-lean: Saudi riyal peg scare returns (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
Chevron slightly higher over the next 7 days: 55.7% chance of a higher close after combining history, scenarios and current evidence.
The forecast swing band is -2.0% to +3.3% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The upside side of the band is wider, so the read has a positive payoff skew even when the headline probability is close to balanced.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 53.8% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from price behavior, the scenario graph. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- Russian refinery drone wavebullish pressure · event odds not verified · 1.57% estimated impact if it hits
- Gulf hurricane shut-inbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 1.12% estimated impact if it hits
- Saudi riyal peg scare returnsbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -2.08% estimated impact if it hits
- Hormuz reopensbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -2.02% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- 1008 rolling 7d return windowsBase higher rate 53.8%, vol 3.37%, momentum z 1.33.
- Russian refinery drone waveEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.57% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Gulf hurricane shut-inEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.12% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Cushing tank-bottoms flip WTI into steep backwardationEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.12% mapped move if the event occurs.
Why lower
- Recent volume participationVolume z-score -0.70.
- Saudi riyal peg scare returnsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -2.08% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Hormuz reopensEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -2.02% mapped move if the event occurs.
- OPEC+ surprise surgeEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -2.48% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · OHLCV bars · Scenario library · asset mesh + scenario graph · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move Chevron — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Chevron up
| Russian refinery drone wave | Odds not verified | +1.6% | 0–6 months |
| Red Sea convoy system imposed | Odds not verified | +1.6% | Imminent |
| Gulf hurricane shut-in | Odds not verified | +1.1% | 0–6 months |
| Cushing tank-bottoms flip WTI into steep backwardation | Odds not verified | +1.1% | 0–6 months |
+ 519 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Chevron down
| Saudi riyal peg scare returns | Odds not verified | −2.1% | 0–6 months |
| OPEC+ surprise surge | Odds not verified | −2.5% | 0–6 months |
| Hormuz reopens | Odds not verified | −2.0% | 0–6 months |
| Saudi market-share war | Odds not verified | −2.2% | 0–6 months |
+ 541 more down-scenarios in the library
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