Commodities
Wheat
WHEAT605← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves Wheat, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans HIGHER
conviction 74% · 763 up vs 106 down scenarios
Wheat leans higher near-term — high conviction. Of the 869 mapped scenarios that move Wheat, 763 push it up and 106 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews higher. The lead driver pushing Wheat higher is Ukraine farmland war damage (35% likely, ~1.4% on Wheat). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
What flips the up-lean: Russia delivers a record wheat harvest and floods exports (40% likely).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Every scenario that moves Wheat — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Wheat up
| Ukraine farmland war damage | 35% | +1.4% | 0–6 months |
| La Niña intensification dries the US Plains and S-Brazil | 37% | +1.0% | 0–6 months |
| US Plains drought devastates hard-red winter wheat crop | 29% | +1.2% | 0–6 months |
| US Corn Belt flash drought | 22% | +1.4% | 0–6 months |
+ 759 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Wheat down
| Russia delivers a record wheat harvest and floods exports | 40% | −1.0% | 6–18 months |
| Global grain glut: Black Sea + US surplus sinks WHEAT | 26% | −1.0% | 1–3 years |
| ENSO-neutral benign year delivers calm global yields | 33% | −0.8% | 1–3 years |
| Black Sea bumper crop: Russian wheat floods world market | 26% | −0.9% | 1–3 years |
+ 102 more down-scenarios in the library
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