Commodities
Copper
XCU6.14← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves Copper, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: TWO-SIDED
conviction 3% · 663 up vs 955 down scenarios
Copper is two-sided near-term — finely balanced. Of the 1,618 mapped scenarios that move Copper, 663 push it up and 955 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews neither way. The single biggest swing factor is Verified room-temperature superconductor (13% likely, ~12.0% on Copper). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Every scenario that moves Copper — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Copper up
| Copper supply shock | 28% | +5.0% | 1–3 years |
| PBOC trims policy rates (LPR/MLF) to revive credit demand | 40% | +1.2% | 0–6 months |
| PBOC cuts the RRR to flood the banking system with liquidity | 42% | +1.1% | 0–6 months |
| China copper-import surge front-runs grid-spending push | 39% | +1.0% | 0–6 months |
+ 659 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Copper down
| Verified room-temperature superconductor | 13% | −12.0% | 3–10 years |
| China property bust collapses copper demand into glut | 58% | −1.3% | 6–18 months |
| Commodity reflation trade unwinds | 19% | −1.4% | 0–6 months |
| China demand-shock to commodities | 31% | −1.7% | 6–18 months |
+ 951 more down-scenarios in the library
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