Hormuz does not normalize in seven days
Shipping remains materially below pre-war traffic through July 31, and Brent records at least one daily close above $90.
Commodities
Brent crude
BRENT—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:BRENTOIL · provider market, not official cash close← all asset outlooks · the strongest mapped scenarios for Brent crude, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Current outlook limited
The latest forecast is outside its freshness window; the price history has not refreshed within three days. The scenario map remains available. MacroGuru is withholding a current probability and static price until the inputs refresh.
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Missing data is a coverage gap, not a neutral market signal. Historical scenarios remain visible for research and search indexing.
Scenario map
525 up vs 531 down scenarios
Brent crude has 1,056 mapped macro scenarios. The library contains 525 upside and 531 downside channels—more downside channels. This is a scenario inventory, not a current directional forecast.
Scenario relationships are research context, not a current market call. Informational, not investment advice.
Current Decision Receipts for Brent crude
Read the event first. Each percentage below is the frozen probability of the named macro event—not the probability that Brent crude rises or falls, and not an expected return. The direction is only the receipt's conditional watchlist instruction if that event resolves true.
Historical price record
Last recorded observation: 2026-08-13. Shown as historical context, not a current market price.
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Top scenarios that move Brent crude — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Brent crude up
| Russian refinery drone wave | Odds not verified | +4.2% | 0–6 months |
| Red Sea convoy system imposed | Odds not verified | +4.2% | Imminent |
| Gulf hurricane shut-in | Odds not verified | +3.0% | 0–6 months |
| Cushing tank-bottoms flip WTI into steep backwardation | Odds not verified | +3.0% | 0–6 months |
+ 521 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Brent crude down
| OPEC+ surprise surge | Odds not verified | −6.6% | 0–6 months |
| Hormuz reopens | Odds not verified | −5.4% | 0–6 months |
| Saudi riyal peg scare returns | Odds not verified | −5.4% | 0–6 months |
| Saudi market-share war | Odds not verified | −6.0% | 0–6 months |
+ 527 more down-scenarios in the library
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