Brent crude leans higher near-term — high conviction. Of the 1,056 mapped scenarios that move Brent crude, 525 push it up and 531 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews higher. The lead driver pushing Brent crude higher is Russian refinery drone wave (46% likely, ~4.2% on Brent crude). This week our model already has Brent crude biased higher. Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.