Commodities
Natural gas
NG3.17← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves Natural gas, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans HIGHER
conviction 57% · 539 up vs 106 down scenarios
Natural gas leans higher near-term — high conviction. Of the 645 mapped scenarios that move Natural gas, 539 push it up and 106 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews higher. The lead driver pushing Natural gas higher is LNG export terminal bombed (7% likely, ~8.0% on Natural gas). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
What flips the up-lean: Henry Hub negative again (14% likely).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Every scenario that moves Natural gas — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Natural gas up
| LNG export terminal bombed | 7% | +8.0% | 6–18 months |
| Asian gas bidding war | 25% | +0.8% | 0–6 months |
| European power price explosion | 29% | +0.6% | 0–6 months |
| Polar vortex freeze-off sends Henry Hub above $12 | 20% | +0.8% | 0–6 months |
+ 535 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Natural gas down
| Henry Hub negative again | 14% | −0.9% | 0–6 months |
| 2026 LNG-glut realization crushes JKM-TTF and Qatar margins | 36% | −0.6% | 6–18 months |
| Asian LNG demand slump leaves Qatari cargoes chasing buyers | 40% | −0.5% | 6–18 months |
| Qatar's North Field expansion lifts LNG capacity to 142mtpa | 50% | −0.4% | 1–3 years |
+ 102 more down-scenarios in the library
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