Commodities
Natural gas
NG—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:NATGAS · provider market, not official cash close← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for Natural gas, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans HIGHER
conviction 56% · 539 up vs 106 down scenarios
Natural gas leans higher near-term — high conviction. Of the 645 mapped scenarios that move Natural gas, 539 push it up and 106 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews higher. The lead driver pushing Natural gas higher is LNG export terminal bombed (event odds not yet verified; ~8.0% estimated impact on Natural gas if it occurs). Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the up-lean: Henry Hub negative again (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
Natural gas is a close call over the next 7 days: 52.9% chance of a lower close means the evidence is only slightly tilted, not high-conviction.
The forecast swing band is -7.8% to +9.3% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The band is fairly balanced, so the read is more about direction than payoff skew.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 45.9% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from the scenario graph. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- LNG export terminal bombedbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 8.0% estimated impact if it hits
- Asian gas bidding warbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.8% estimated impact if it hits
- Henry Hub negative againbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -0.9% estimated impact if it hits
- Asian LNG demand slump leaves Qatari cargoes chasing buyersbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -0.5% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- LNG export terminal bombedEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 8.0% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Asian gas bidding warEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.8% mapped move if the event occurs.
- European power price explosionEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.6% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Scenario/news pressure transmits through the asset mapMesh score +0.00; scenario score +0.60.
Why lower
- Recent volume participationVolume z-score -0.61.
- Henry Hub negative againEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.9% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Asian LNG demand slump leaves Qatari cargoes chasing buyersEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.5% mapped move if the event occurs.
- 2026 LNG-glut realization crushes JKM-TTF and Qatar marginsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.6% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · OHLCV bars · Scenario library · asset mesh + scenario graph · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move Natural gas — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Natural gas up
| LNG export terminal bombed | Odds not verified | +8.0% | 6–18 months |
| Asian gas bidding war | Odds not verified | +0.8% | 0–6 months |
| European power price explosion | Odds not verified | +0.6% | 0–6 months |
| Polar vortex freeze-off sends Henry Hub above $12 | Odds not verified | +0.8% | 0–6 months |
+ 535 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Natural gas down
| Henry Hub negative again | Odds not verified | −0.9% | 0–6 months |
| Asian LNG demand slump leaves Qatari cargoes chasing buyers | Odds not verified | −0.5% | 6–18 months |
| 2026 LNG-glut realization crushes JKM-TTF and Qatar margins | Odds not verified | −0.6% | 6–18 months |
| Qatar's North Field expansion lifts LNG capacity to 142mtpa | Odds not verified | −0.4% | 1–3 years |
+ 102 more down-scenarios in the library
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