Commodities
WTI crude
CL67.28← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves WTI crude, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans HIGHER
conviction 28% · 636 up vs 1271 down scenarios
WTI crude leans higher near-term — a lean. Of the 1,907 mapped scenarios that move WTI crude, 636 push it up and 1,271 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews higher. The lead driver pushing WTI crude higher is Russian refinery drone wave (46% likely, ~3.5% on WTI crude). This week our model already has WTI crude biased lower. Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
What flips the up-lean: Saudi riyal peg scare returns (16% likely).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Every scenario that moves WTI crude — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes WTI crude up
| Russian refinery drone wave | 46% | +3.5% | 0–6 months |
| Red Sea convoy system imposed | 30% | +3.5% | Imminent |
| Gulf hurricane shut-in | 40% | +2.5% | 0–6 months |
| Cushing tank-bottoms flip WTI into steep backwardation | 39% | +2.5% | 0–6 months |
+ 632 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes WTI crude down
| Saudi riyal peg scare returns | 16% | −4.6% | 0–6 months |
| Hormuz reopens | 16% | −4.5% | 0–6 months |
| OPEC+ surprise surge | 12% | −5.5% | 0–6 months |
| Saudi market-share war | 12% | −5.0% | 0–6 months |
+ 1,267 more down-scenarios in the library
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