Equities
ExxonMobil
XOM163.11Latest recorded close · 2026-09-01← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for ExxonMobil, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: TWO-SIDED
conviction 9% · 531 up vs 607 down scenarios
ExxonMobil is two-sided near-term — finely balanced. Of the 1,138 mapped scenarios that move ExxonMobil, 531 push it up and 607 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews neither way. The single biggest swing factor is Solar plus storage hits rock bottom (event odds not yet verified; ~1.6% estimated impact on ExxonMobil if it occurs). Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
ExxonMobil slightly higher over the next 7 days: 53.6% chance of a higher close after combining history, scenarios and current evidence.
The forecast swing band is -2.5% to +3.0% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The band is fairly balanced, so the read is more about direction than payoff skew.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 53.3% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from the scenario graph. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- Russian refinery drone wavebullish pressure · event odds not verified · 1.75% estimated impact if it hits
- Gulf hurricane shut-inbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 1.25% estimated impact if it hits
- Saudi riyal peg scare returnsbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -2.31% estimated impact if it hits
- Hormuz reopensbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -2.25% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- Russian refinery drone waveEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.75% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Gulf hurricane shut-inEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.25% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Cushing tank-bottoms flip WTI into steep backwardationEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.25% mapped move if the event occurs.
Why lower
- Recent volume participationVolume z-score -0.46.
- Saudi riyal peg scare returnsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -2.31% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Hormuz reopensEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -2.25% mapped move if the event occurs.
- OPEC+ surprise surgeEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -2.75% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · OHLCV bars · Scenario library · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move ExxonMobil — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes ExxonMobil up
| Russian refinery drone wave | Odds not verified | +1.8% | 0–6 months |
| Red Sea convoy system imposed | Odds not verified | +1.8% | Imminent |
| Supply cliff after the glut snaps the market into deficit | Odds not verified | +1.7% | 3–10 years |
| Gulf hurricane shut-in | Odds not verified | +1.2% | 0–6 months |
+ 527 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes ExxonMobil down
| Solar plus storage hits rock bottom | Odds not verified | −1.6% | 1–3 years |
| Solar-plus-storage cost collapse re-rates clean-power developers | Odds not verified | −1.2% | 1–3 years |
| Solar-plus-storage cost collapse makes clean power the default build | Odds not verified | −1.2% | 1–3 years |
| AI-grid-EV copper super-cycle opens 30% deficit by 2035 | Odds not verified | −0.8% | 3–10 years |
+ 603 more down-scenarios in the library
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