Equities
United Airlines
UAL134← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves United Airlines, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 35% · 617 up vs 549 down scenarios
United Airlines leans lower near-term — a lean. Of the 1,166 mapped scenarios that move United Airlines, 617 push it up and 549 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing United Airlines lower is Jet fuel crunch (28% likely, ~1.4% on United Airlines). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
What flips the down-lean: A pandemic or biosecurity scare triggers a sudden travel-demand shock (24% likely).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Every scenario that moves United Airlines — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes United Airlines up
| A pandemic or biosecurity scare triggers a sudden travel-demand shock | 24% | +1.3% | 6–18 months |
| Saudi riyal peg scare returns | 16% | +2.8% | 0–6 months |
| Hormuz reopens | 16% | +2.7% | 0–6 months |
| OPEC+ surprise surge | 12% | +3.3% | 0–6 months |
+ 613 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes United Airlines down
| Jet fuel crunch | 28% | −1.4% | 0–6 months |
| Oil-supply shock sends jet fuel up 50% and grounds airline margins | 32% | −1.9% | 6–18 months |
| Russian refinery drone wave | 46% | −2.1% | 0–6 months |
| Jet-fuel spike grounds demand | 8% | −2.3% | 0–6 months |
+ 545 more down-scenarios in the library
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