Equities
United Airlines
UAL107.14Latest recorded close · 2026-09-01← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for United Airlines, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 35% · 617 up vs 549 down scenarios
United Airlines leans lower near-term — a lean. Of the 1,166 mapped scenarios that move United Airlines, 617 push it up and 549 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing United Airlines lower is Jet fuel crunch (event odds not yet verified; ~1.4% estimated impact on United Airlines if it occurs). Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the down-lean: A pandemic or biosecurity scare triggers a sudden travel-demand shock (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
United Airlines is a close call over the next 7 days: 50.7% chance of a higher close means the evidence is only slightly tilted, not high-conviction.
The forecast swing band is -5.5% to +4.3% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The downside band is wider, so the read is cautious even when the headline probability is close to balanced.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 52.7% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from price behavior, the scenario graph. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- A pandemic or biosecurity scare triggers a sudden travel-demand shockbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 1.33% estimated impact if it hits
- Saudi riyal peg scare returnsbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 2.75% estimated impact if it hits
- Jet fuel crunchbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -1.38% estimated impact if it hits
- Oil-supply shock sends jet fuel up 50% and grounds airline marginsbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -1.91% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- A pandemic or biosecurity scare triggers a sudden travel-demand shockEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.33% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Saudi riyal peg scare returnsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 2.75% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Hormuz reopensEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 2.68% mapped move if the event occurs.
Why lower
- 1008 rolling 7d return windowsBase higher rate 52.7%, vol 6.53%, momentum z -1.34.
- Recent volume participationVolume z-score -1.48.
- Jet fuel crunchEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -1.38% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Oil-supply shock sends jet fuel up 50% and grounds airline marginsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -1.91% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · OHLCV bars · Scenario library · asset mesh + scenario graph · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move United Airlines — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes United Airlines up
| A pandemic or biosecurity scare triggers a sudden travel-demand shock | Odds not verified | +1.3% | 6–18 months |
| Saudi riyal peg scare returns | Odds not verified | +2.8% | 0–6 months |
| OPEC+ surprise surge | Odds not verified | +3.3% | 0–6 months |
| Hormuz reopens | Odds not verified | +2.7% | 0–6 months |
+ 613 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes United Airlines down
| Jet fuel crunch | Odds not verified | −1.4% | 0–6 months |
| Oil-supply shock sends jet fuel up 50% and grounds airline margins | Odds not verified | −1.9% | 6–18 months |
| Russian refinery drone wave | Odds not verified | −2.1% | 0–6 months |
| Jet-fuel spike grounds demand | Odds not verified | −2.3% | 0–6 months |
+ 545 more down-scenarios in the library
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